Research by Australian National University lays out a range of virus outcomes, In the worst case, the global death toll could reach a staggering 68million and some countries’ economies could shrink by eight per cent in a global meltdown,as per dailymail.co.uk
The research by the Australian National University also predicted that global GDP could shrink by as much as $2.3 trillion even in what they call a ‘low-end’ pandemic. Some countries’ economies could shrink by 8% in a global meltdown, study added.
In the most disastrous scenario, the death toll could reach a staggering 68million including hundreds of thousands of deaths in Britain and the United States. In that worst-case pandemic, some countries’ economies would shrink by as much as eight per cent in a global meltdown.
There is a strong warnings of a global meltdown because of coronavirus , the death rate in China is estimated at around two per cent and adjusted for other countries. The global death rate has been drifting higher than that in recent weeks, currently hovering around 3.4 per cent.
The estimates suggest that India and China would each lose millions of people, with more than 230,000 people killed in the United States. These estimated deaths from COVID-19 can be compared to a regular influenza season in the United States, where around 55,000 people die each year,’ researchers point out.
Britain – which has only seen one death so far – could expect to see 64,000 fatalities, with 79,000 in Germany and 60,000 in France. South Korea and Italy, which have suffered particularly widespread outbreaks in recent weeks, would also be bracing for tens of thousands of deaths, the study says.
In that scenario, Britain’s GDP would drop by around 1.5 per cent, with America’s economy shrinking by 2.0 per cent. The global economy would take a $2.3billion hit, the researchers estimate, with Australia and Germany also forecast to slide into severe recessions.
In the ‘high-severity’ forecast, the coronavirus outbreak would cause a catastrophic death toll of more than 68million people around the world, researchers say.
The dead would include more than 12million people in China alone, as well as 1.1million in the United States.
Britain’s death toll would be a catastrophic 290,000, with Germany and France likewise losing hundreds of thousands of people.
Russia’s fatality count would also be approaching a million in that scenario, the researchers’ data shows.
In that disastrous outcome, the global economy would take a $9.2trillion hit with many countries facing very deep recessions.
The British economy would shrink by 6.0 per cent in 2020 in that scenario – worse than the 4.2 per cent drop it suffered at the depths of the global financial crisis in 2009.
Meanwhile the U.S. economy would suffer an 8.4 per cent drop in a recession which would reverberate around the world.
There is also a ‘mid-severity’ estimate, in which the global death toll would be around 38million and the global economic hit around $5.3trillion. ‘Companies across the world, irrespective of size, dependent upon inputs from China have started experiencing contractions in production.
‘Global financial markets have also been responsive to the changes and global stock indices have plunged. Amidst the global turbulence, in an initial assessment, the International Monetary Fund expects China to slow down by 0.4 percentage points compared to its initial growth target to 5.6 per cent, also slowing down global growth by 0.1 percentage points.’
The researchers say that a ‘range of policy responses will be required’ to prevent disaster. According to Johns Hopkins University – with at least 3,015 deaths in China and 267 fatalities in other parts of the globe, most of them in Italy and Iran out of total 1,00,000 confirmed cases.
Most of them are in China, but the virus has been spreading faster in other hotspots such as Italy, Iran and South Korea in recent weeks. Tokyo stocks ended the morning session more than three percent lower on Friday, as worries over the spread of the new coronavirus intensified.
Some countries have already announced an economic stimulus, with Italy yesterday unveiling plans to loosen its budgetary rules.