Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman will present the Economic Survey 2022-23, which is likely to highlight India’s strong growth in the ongoing financial year and provide a detailed outlook of the country’s growth in FY24. Here is all you need to know.
Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman is all set to present the Economic Survey 2022-23 on Tuesday in the Parliament, after President Droupadi Murmu’s address to the joint sitting of the Lok Sabha and the Rajya Sabha on Tuesday.
The survey is presented just a day ahead of the budget every year. This year, the survey was prepared by the Economic Division of the finance ministry’s Department of Economic Affairs under the supervision of the Chief Economic Advisor V Anantha Nageswaran.
The Economic Survey is the government’s review of how the economy performed in the past year. It is an important document that will provide insights into various aspects of the economy during FY23. It also provides a detailed outlook for the next financial year. The Economist Survey also sets the stage for announcements that can be expected in the budget.
While the focus of the Economic Survey for the previous two years was on tackling Covid-related economic hurdles, this year it is expected to focus on the impact of global growth instability, geopolitical tensions and rising inflation. It will also focus on the challenges that India could face in FY24 amid growing fears of a global recession, besides noting steps that the government can take to keep India’s economy shielded.
The Economic Survey is likely to peg GDP growth at 6-6.8 per cent for FY24, according to a source quoted in a Reuters report. It is also likely to say that growth is seen at 6.5 per cent for 2023-24 under the baseline scenario. If this is the case, it would be the slowest in three years, the report noted.
Meanwhile, nominal GDP growth is likely to be forecast at 11 per cent for FY24, according to the source quoted in the report. The survey is also expected to note that India’s growth in the upcoming financial year will remain relatively stronger than most other global economies, led by sustained private consumption, a pick-up in lending by banks and improved capital spending by corporations.
While India’s economy has seen a strong rebound since the Covid-19 pandemic, the Russia-Ukraine conflict has led to a sharp rise in prices and prompted central banks around the globe, including the Reserve Bank of India, to reverse the ultra-loose monetary policy that was adopted during the pandemic.
The survey is also expected to take note of India’s rising inflation, estimated by the central bank at 6.8 per cent in FY23. However, it is also likely to say that the pace of price increases is not enough to deter private consumption or low enough to weaken investment.
The survey will likely caution that pressure on the Indian rupee could continue due to the tightening monetary policy. It could also touch upon the challenges that will be faced by Indian exporters due to the global economic slowdown.
The survey is also likely to highlight improvement in employment conditions in India due to stronger consumption, but also mention the need for a further pick-up in private investment to boost job creation. It is further expected to shed light on the government’s spending towards infrastructure, which has helped in job creation.
Last but not the least, the survey is likely to point to an improvement in the financial health of the country’s banking sector, which is a major factor contributing to overall economic stability and growth.
