There is no deny in the fact that, the global economy could slump into recession in 2020. It also says that aggregate demand is expected to be impacted adversely by likely recession in the global economy, caused by disruptions in global supply chains, travel and tourism, and lockdowns in many economies including Indian economy.The impact of the coronavirus outbreak on the Indian economy and job market. The effect comes as the country is under a 21-day lockdown as part of larger efforts to curb spreading of coronavirus infections in India.
There has been reports on the social unrest , which has already started in many parts of India due to the countrywide lockdownas soon as the lockdowns relaxed,migrant workers whoa re marooned in different parts will try to return home.Resulted they will probably hesitate to migrate again for a while. Few experts expect that, 2020-21 a GDP growth of 2 per cent,the slowest since economy has liberalised 30 years back. Asian Development Bank (ADB) sees India’s economic growth slipping to 4 per cent in the current fiscal( April 2020 to March 2021),while S &P Global ratings last week further slashed GDP growth forecast for the country to 3.5 per cent from the previous downgrade of 5.2 per cent.
The global economy is expected to go into recession after taking into account the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic, the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) said in its latest Monetary Policy report.”Aggregate demand is expected to be impacted adversely by likely recession in the global economy, caused by disruptions in global supply chains, travel and tourism, and lockdowns in many economies,” the RBI said in its latest monetary policy report.
“The oppressive force of the novel coronavirus (COVID-19) on weak or moderating high-frequency indicators of activity, barring agriculture, indicates that the implicit real GDP growth for Q4:2019-20 in the NSO’s data release could be undershot by a fair margin. In fact, the widening incidence of COVID-19 in March 2020 may produce downward pulls to Q4 GDP,” RBI said.
“While efforts are being mounted on a war footing to arrest its spread, COVID-19 would impact economic activity in India directly through domestic lockdown. Second round effects would operate through a severe slowdown in global trade and growth,” the RBI said. The lockdown is expected to significantly lower aggregate demand in both rural and urban areas, the monetary policy report said. Second round effects would operate through a severe slowdown in global trade and growth. It also says that the lockdown is expected to significantly lower aggregate demand in both rural and urban areas.