Sri Lanka has chosen a new leader, Anura Kumara Dissanayake, a Marxist-leaning politician, to guide the nation through its most pressing economic crisis in decades. The election, held after the 2022 financial meltdown, has raised hopes for change, but also significant challenges, as Dissanayake prepares to take office amid an ongoing International Monetary Fund (IMF) bailout and widespread poverty.
Victory for Dissanayake: A Shift in Political Landscape
Anura Kumara Dissanayake, a 55-year-old political figure from the Janatha Vimukthi Peramuna (JVP), secured a notable victory in Sri Lanka’s presidential run-off. Leading the polls from the beginning, Dissanayake managed to defeat incumbent President Ranil Wickremesinghe and opposition leader Sajith Premadasa. This election marked a pivotal shift in Sri Lankan politics, not just because of the candidate’s political alignment but also due to the process: this was the first election in the nation’s history where a second tally was required. None of the top candidates had secured the 50% of votes needed to win outright, resulting in a count of preferential votes.
Dissanayake ultimately won with 42.3% of the vote, while Premadasa secured 32.8%. The sitting president, Wickremesinghe, who led Sri Lanka through the initial recovery following the 2022 financial collapse, garnered only 17%, signaling public discontent with his austerity-driven recovery strategy.
Sri Lanka’s Economic Crisis: Background to the Election
The 2022 financial crisis set the stage for this election, with Sri Lanka facing one of its worst economic downturns in recent history. Severe foreign exchange shortages crippled the nation, leaving it unable to import essential goods like fuel and medicine. The crisis led to widespread protests and ultimately the resignation of former President Gotabaya Rajapaksa.
Following Rajapaksa’s exit, Ranil Wickremesinghe took over and attempted to stabilize the economy through an IMF bailout worth $2.9 billion. The measures, which included tax hikes and welfare cuts, helped moderate inflation—down from 70% to 0.5% in a year—but came at a steep cost to the average citizen. Poverty and unemployment surged, and the cost of living became untenable for millions. As the IMF program remains in place until 2027, the election became a referendum on Wickremesinghe’s economic management.
Dissanayake’s Agenda: Promises of Change
Positioning himself as a candidate for change, Dissanayake capitalized on the public’s dissatisfaction with the political status quo. His campaign promised aggressive action against corruption, greater welfare support for the poor, and a reduction of the burdensome taxes imposed by the current administration. However, these promises also raised concerns about Sri Lanka’s ability to meet the IMF’s strict fiscal targets, especially considering the ongoing debt restructuring negotiations.
Despite these concerns, Dissanayake tempered his campaign rhetoric by pledging to consult the IMF and ensure debt repayments, thereby signaling a willingness to work within the confines of international financial obligations. This conciliatory tone helped reassure some voters and international observers who were wary of radical policy shifts.
Political analyst Pradeep Peiris from the University of Colombo commented that Dissanayake’s win reflects the continued influence of the mass protests that erupted in 2022. “People have voted in line with aspirations for a new political order and system of governance. Dissanayake embodies these aspirations,” Peiris remarked, indicating that the discontent which led to Rajapaksa’s downfall remains a potent political force.
Challenges Ahead: Rebuilding Trust and the Economy
While Dissanayake’s electoral success has been impressive, it also signals the immense challenges ahead. For one, his anti-austerity policies, while popular with the public, may conflict with the IMF program that is crucial to Sri Lanka’s recovery. He has proposed slashing taxes, a move that risks undermining fiscal discipline, but his promise of a dialogue with the IMF suggests a pragmatic approach to governing.
Moreover, Sri Lanka’s debt crisis remains unresolved. The country’s debt-to-GDP ratio has soared, and Dissanayake will need to navigate delicate negotiations with international creditors to ensure that the economy remains on a stable trajectory. Beyond the macroeconomic challenges, the grinding poverty afflicting millions will be a pressing concern for the new president. Nearly 25% of Sri Lankans are living below the poverty line, a stark reminder of the human cost of the financial crisis.
According to Janak Dias, a real estate businessman, many Sri Lankans believe that effective leadership is essential to overcoming these challenges. “The root cause for the downfall of this country is bad management. We need a good manager to steer us forward,” Dias commented, reflecting the high hopes placed on Dissanayake’s leadership.
Who is Anura Kumara Dissanayake?
Born in 1968, Dissanayake has long been a prominent figure in Sri Lankan leftist politics. His affiliation with the JVP, a Marxist-leaning political party, began in the late 1980s during the turbulent period of the Indo-Sri Lanka Agreement. The JVP spearheaded an armed rebellion against the government, an episode marked by significant violence and loss of life. Dissanayake, who became JVP’s leader in 2008, has since distanced himself from the insurrection, acknowledging the atrocities committed during what is often referred to as the “season of terror.”
Despite the JVP holding only three seats in parliament, Dissanayake’s appeal has grown due to his promises of a new political culture. His leadership of the National People’s Power (NPP) alliance has solidified his position as a candidate capable of channeling the public’s desire for change.
A Critical Moment for Sri Lanka’s Future
The 2023 presidential election has undoubtedly been a watershed moment for Sri Lanka. It is the first major political event since the economic crisis, and the victory of Anura Kumara Dissanayake represents a strong desire among Sri Lankans for a new direction. As the country grapples with high levels of public debt, widespread poverty, and a fragile economic recovery, Dissanayake’s government will need to navigate a fine balance between meeting the demands of international creditors and fulfilling his mandate for economic and social reform.
As Dissanayake prepares to take office, the world watches closely to see if this Marxist-leaning politician can deliver on his promises while maintaining the economic stability achieved under Wickremesinghe’s stewardship. For now, Sri Lankans are cautiously hopeful that their new president can bring the change they desperately seek.
(With inputs from agencies)
