India might see a peak by Jan-end and subside by Feb: Prof Bhramar

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India has reported over 1,94,720 new Covid cases in the last 24 hours, with the top five states which have registered maximum cases are Maharashtra with 46,723 cases, followed by Delhi with 27,561 cases, West Bengal with 22,155 cases, Tamil Nadu with 17,934 cases and Karnataka with 21,390 cases.

According to Professor Bhramar Mukherjee, data scientist and epidemiologist, University of Michigan,

states like Delhi, Maharashtra and West Bengal, might see an early peak.

“In the next seven or ten days, we will see that there will be a slowdown in terms of the growth trajectory. Delhi had a basic reproduction number of 2 and it has come down to 1.4. I am hopeful the test-positivity rate has really lowered slightly. I am hopeful some of the states are going to peak in the next seven days. But India might peak in late January,” she said.

“It is always the case for India and we know that it’s like having multiple nations within a nation and there is usually a cascade of peaks coming through different regions, states and union territories,” she added.

 

She further explained that given the high transmissibility of Omicron, it is fast ripping through the population and spreading like wildfire. But that also implies that it cannot be sustainable for a long period of time.

However, Prof Mukherjee points out that vaccination is the key. Looking at data from other countries, the professor explained that a large number of people who have been hospitalised with Omicron are unvaccinated.

 “So many people are sick right now, but all thanks to god or public health or vaccines, that very few have to go to the hospitals. The situation right now looks very different from the second wave because the immunity wall of India has changed substantially with natural infection plus vaccination,” she said.

Prof Mukherjee believes that the wave is going to be over by February. However, all models are wrinkled with assumptions and depend on human behaviour, as she pointed out. “We don’t know what an event like Gangasagar mela would do. The figure and statistics, however, indicate the wave may peak by January and end by February,” she concluded.

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