- Russia captures 235 sq km (91 sq miles) over the last week
- Advance accelerated significantly since July
- Moscow troops move into strategic town of Kurakhove
- Pace of advance fastest since early 2022
Escalation in the Ukraine War
The conflict in Ukraine, nearing two years since its onset, has entered a dangerous new phase as Russian forces make significant territorial gains. In November 2024, Russia achieved its fastest pace of advancement since the initial invasion, claiming an area nearly half the size of London. Analysts suggest that this shift marks a critical juncture in the war, with both sides gearing up for what could be a decisive confrontation.
Territorial Gains: Russia’s Largest Advances of 2024
According to independent Russian news group Agentstvo and combat mapping by DeepState, Russian forces captured 600 square kilometers of Ukrainian territory in November alone, with 235 square kilometers seized in the past week—a monthly and weekly record for 2024. These advancements primarily occurred in the eastern Donetsk region, particularly near Kurakhove and Pokrovsk, where Russian forces have exploited vulnerabilities in Ukrainian defenses.
The current status of control sees Russia holding 18% of Ukraine’s territory, including Crimea, over 80% of Donbas, and significant portions of Zaporizhzhia and Kherson regions. This acceleration follows a summer period of Russian consolidation and limited Ukrainian advances in Russia’s western Kursk region.
Tactics Behind the Push
The Institute for the Study of War (ISW) attributes the Russian success to a combination of tactical innovations and relentless artillery and glide bomb bombardments. The strategy involves encircling Ukrainian-held territories before launching intense offensives. This method has allowed Russia to gain ground while inflicting heavy casualties. Pro-Russian military bloggers suggest that if Ukrainian defenses around Kurakhove crumble, Russian forces could push westward toward the strategic city of Zaporizhzhia, further consolidating their hold in the region.
The Ukrainian Struggle: Manpower and Morale
For Ukraine, the situation is dire. President Volodymyr Zelenskyy remains resolute, insisting that peace cannot be achieved until all Russian forces are expelled, including from Crimea. However, Ukraine faces mounting challenges, including dwindling manpower and stretched resources. Recruitment struggles, combined with difficulties equipping new units, have hindered their ability to respond effectively to Russian advances.
Ukrainian forces remain engaged in fierce battles, with reports of 45 skirmishes along the Kurakhove front in a single evening. Yet, despite their determination, the sheer scale of the Russian offensive is overwhelming Ukrainian defenses.
Global Implications
This phase of the conflict has broader geopolitical ramifications. Russia’s momentum comes at a time when the United States has provided Kyiv with advanced missile systems, enabling Ukraine to strike Russian positions with greater precision. However, Moscow’s ability to adapt and capitalize on Ukrainian vulnerabilities underscores the evolving dynamics of modern warfare.
President Vladimir Putin, who reshuffled his defense leadership earlier this year, has reiterated Russia’s resolve to achieve its objectives in Ukraine, framing the advances as evidence of a more effective military strategy. The conflict, however, has turned large parts of eastern and southern Ukraine into wastelands, with both sides suffering catastrophic losses. Western intelligence estimates casualties in the hundreds of thousands, underscoring the human cost of the prolonged war.
Historical Perspective: Past Russian Advances
While November 2024 marks a peak in Russian territorial gains, it is not the first time Russia has demonstrated its ability to rapidly capture ground. In the early days of the invasion in 2022, Russian forces seized significant portions of eastern and southern Ukraine before facing setbacks during Ukrainian counteroffensives. The current advance, however, reflects a more calculated approach, leveraging lessons learned over nearly two years of conflict.
A Dangerous Phase Ahead
As the war continues, the balance of power appears to be tilting in Russia’s favour, at least temporarily. For Ukraine, the challenge lies in maintaining resistance amid dwindling resources and a relentless opponent. For the international community, the conflict remains a stark reminder of the risks posed by unchecked aggression and the complexities of modern geopolitics.
The next few months will be critical. Whether Ukraine can regroup and counter the Russian offensive or whether Moscow solidifies its territorial gains could shape not only the outcome of this war but also the future security dynamics of the region.
(With inputs from agencies)
