Akhilesh Yadav has declared that the Samajwadis plus Ambedkarwadis will finish off the BJP in UP in 2022.
After the conclusion of Phase 2 of polling in Uttar Pradesh which is labelled as the minority belt, elections now move to the Yadav belt in Phase 3. 59 seats are up for grabs in this phase. This is a traditional stronghold of Mulayam Singh Yadav’s family. 15 of these seats are reserved for Scheduled Castes (SCs).
Both Mulayam and brother Shivpal have been MLAs from this region. Akhilesh is contesting the MLA election for the first time from Karahal which falls in this region.
16 districts go to the polls on February 20, including Hathras, Firozabad, Kasganj, Etah, Mainpuri, Farrukhabad, Kannauj, Etawah, Auraiya, Kanpur Dehat, Kanpur Nagar, Jalaun, Jhansi, Lalitpur, Hamirpur and Mahoba. In terms of regions, this includes districts from Doab and Bundelkhand.
47of these seats have good Yadav population. 5 seats with more than 1 lakh Yadavs, 7 seats between 50,000 and 1 lakh, 27 seats between 25,000 and 50,000 populations. Yadavs hold the aces in this region.
Jaswant Nagar, Jasrana, Sirsaganj, Karahal and Sikhohbad have more than 1 lakh Yadav population. Aliganj, Bidhuna, Kishni, Dibiyapur, Mainpuri, Rath and Etah have more than 50,000 Yadavs.
The Muslim population here is less than 11%. It is more than 15% in only 4 districts out of 16 going to the polls. Hence, SP may not be able to enjoy the benefit of MY (Muslim-Yadav) consolidation. The SC population here is good at 21%. It is more than 20% in 8 districts.
SP has over the years held its grip on the Yadav vote, bagging 66%-75% of the community support. BJP has been able to make some dent in the Yadavs, especially among youth but that is limited to general elections, no spillover on state polls.
