Covid cases rising again; is it a wave or an endemic spike?

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The 12,213 new infections in India on June 16 is the highest jump in cases since mid-February. Experts emphasise on taking the booster shot and continuing with safety protocols

The past few days have seen a gradual rise in Covid cases in India, with 12,213 new cases recorded on June 16—a 39 per cent surge from the day before. This is the highest spike in cases since mid-February and the first time since February 26 that daily numbers crossed the 10,000 mark. Two states are seeing a significant leap in numbers—Maharashtra and Kerala. While Maharashtra recorded 4,024 new cases, Kerala saw 3,488 new infections. Together, they had the highest number of active cases as on June 16.

But experts say this isn’t a ‘wave’ rather an endemic spike, which will come and go often since Covid-19 neither went away nor is likely to. While India had a break from high numbers, the world has been reeling under the onslaught of Omicron’s sub-variants. Interestingly, the fact that India was hit by a BA.2 variant wave, whose later sub-variants are now causing surges in South Africa and the US, could be one of the reasons we haven’t seen a similar spike. It could also simply be underreporting of numbers as many now prefer to take a home test, which often goes unrecorded. “People are no longer wearing masks or maintaining social distancing. Many don’t want to take their booster shots. As a result, once the previous immunity wanes or new variants come up, we will see a rise,” says Dr Farah Ingale, internal medicine specialist at Fortis Hospital in Navi Mumbai’s Vashi.

The situation in Mumbai is worrying. According to BMC (Brihanmumbai Municipal Corporation) data, daily cases in the city rose by almost 950 per cent from mid-May to June 12. More than 100 Covid patients were hospitalised on June 12 in Mumbai, the highest single-day figure in four months. The city has also reported three cases of the BA.4 variant and one of the BA.5 variant, and reportedly also of BA.2.12.1—all sub-variants of Omicron that have caused waves in other parts of the world. Experts say this could be a warning sign for other cities as well.

Sub-variants like BA.4 and BA.2.12.1 can overcome immunity gained against other Omicron sub-variants. While patients might suffer from mild disease due to previously acquired natural or vaccine-induced immunity, Covid remains lethal for those with comorbid conditions, the elderly, and those who are unvaccinated. “It is vital that people take their vaccine booster doses to stay protected. And when the numbers are rising, it is also a good practice to return to wearing proper masks and staying away from crowded areas,” says Dr Rohan Aurangabadwalla, pulmonologist, Apollo Hospitals, Navi Mumbai.

Whether there is a wave or not, doctors say the pandemic is still on and Covid is out there—evolving, infecting and claiming lives. Given the advances in medical understanding of the virus, along with the growing availability and efficacy of Covid vaccines, the world is now far better prepared to take on Covid. However, it remains vital that we don’t take the virus, or our health, for granted and continue to follow Covid-appropriate behaviour.

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