The India Meteorological Department (IMD) has reported that a deep depression over the Arabian Sea has intensified into Cyclone Asna, affecting the coastal regions of Gujarat and adjacent areas of Pakistan. As a result, moderate to heavy rainfall is forecasted across Gujarat today, with very heavy rainfall expected in the Saurashtra and Kutch regions on Friday. An ‘orange alert’ has been issued for several districts, including Jamnagar, Porbandar, and Dwarka.
Cyclone Asna, named by Pakistan, marks the first cyclonic storm in the Arabian Sea in August since 1976. Historically, only three cyclonic storms have formed in the Arabian Sea in August between 1891 and 2023—in 1976, 1964, and 1944.
- 1976 Cyclone: This cyclone intensified over the northwest Arabian Sea near the coast of Oman after originating in Odisha, moving west-northwestward, and entering the Arabian Sea.
- 1944 Cyclone: The storm entered the Arabian Sea, strengthened, and then weakened.
- 1964 Cyclone: A brief cyclone formed near the South Gujarat coast and dissipated near the coastline.
As of now, the deep depression has moved westward at a speed of 6 km/h over the last six hours, centering 190 km west-northwest of Bhuj, Gujarat. It is predicted to continue moving west-northwestward over the northeast Arabian Sea, away from the Indian coast, in the next two days.
The IMD defines a deep depression as a low-pressure system with wind speeds between 52 km/h and 61 km/h, whereas a cyclone has wind speeds between 63 km/h and 87 km/h. Cyclonic systems require sea surface temperatures of 27 degrees Celsius or above to form and intensify. Currently, the Arabian Sea’s surface temperature is 27-28 degrees Celsius, while the Bay of Bengal’s temperature ranges from 28-30 degrees Celsius.
Due to the colder sea temperatures (below 26 degrees Celsius) in the west-central Arabian Sea, the IMD has suggested that Cyclone Asna is unlikely to intensify significantly.
Impact in Gujarat
In Gujarat, rain-related incidents have claimed 26 lives over the past three days. More than 18,000 people have been relocated, and about 1,200 have been rescued from flood-affected areas. Helicopters were used in some locations for evacuations, as reported by the State Emergency Operation Centre (SEOC).
Vadodara, one of the most severely affected cities, saw some relief as the Vishwamitri river’s water level dropped from 37 feet to 32 feet. However, several low-lying areas remain inundated. The river had crossed the danger mark of 25 feet on Tuesday morning following heavy rainfall and the release of water from Ajwa Dam.
