Vice President Kamala Harris has taken a slight lead over Republican Donald Trump, according to a new Reuters/Ipsos poll. Harris leads Trump 44% to 42%, a narrow two-percentage-point margin. This comes after President Joe Biden ended his re-election campaign and endorsed Harris as the Democratic nominee.
Poll Comparisons
The recent poll shows a shift from the previous week when Biden faced a two-point deficit against Trump. Harris and Trump were tied at 44% in a July 15-16 poll, and Trump led by one percentage point in a July 1-2 poll. All these results fall within the 3-percentage-point margin of error.
Impact of Conventions and Announcements
The poll was conducted on Monday and Tuesday following the Republican National Convention where Trump accepted the nomination and Biden’s announcement of his exit and support for Harris. Despite the typical bump candidates receive from such events, the poll did not show a significant rise in Trump’s support.
Skepticism from Trump’s Campaign
Trump’s campaign pollster, Tony Fabrizio, downplayed Harris’s rise in the polls. He suggested that her increased popularity was temporary, boosted by media coverage of her new candidacy. “That bump is likely to start showing itself over the next few days and will last for a while,” Fabrizio stated.
Electoral College Considerations
While national polls provide insight, the outcome of the U.S. presidential election is ultimately decided by the Electoral College, which can be influenced by a few key states. This makes the national lead less predictive of the final result.
Perception of Candidates
The poll also revealed perceptions of the candidates’ capabilities. 56% of registered voters agreed that Harris, 59, was “mentally sharp and able to deal with challenges.” In comparison, 49% said the same of Trump, 78, and only 22% said so about Biden, 81. Biden’s decision to end his re-election bid followed a debate with Trump where he struggled to respond effectively to Trump’s attacks.
Democratic Support for Harris
Among Democratic voters, 80% viewed Biden favorably, while 91% viewed Harris favorably. A significant 75% of Democratic voters agreed that the party should unite behind Harris, while only 25% believed multiple candidates should compete for the nomination.
Hypothetical Three-Way Race
The poll also explored a hypothetical race including independent candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr. In this scenario, Harris led Trump 42% to 38%, with Kennedy receiving 8%. Kennedy has yet to qualify for the ballot in many states ahead of the November 5 election.
Harris Campaigns in Wisconsin
Harris campaigned in Wisconsin, a critical battleground state, on Tuesday. Attention is now turning to her choice of running mate. Many voters in the poll were unfamiliar with potential vice-presidential picks.
Potential Running Mates
Among potential running mates, U.S. Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg had the highest favorability rating at 37%, though about one in four registered voters had never heard of him. One in three voters had not heard of California Governor Gavin Newsom, with a similar number viewing him favorably. Half of the respondents had never heard of Arizona Senator Mark Kelly, and two-thirds were unaware of Kentucky Governor Andy Beshear.
Poll Details
The online poll surveyed 1,241 U.S. adults nationwide, including 1,018 registered voters. This snapshot provides a glimpse into the evolving dynamics of the 2024 presidential race as Harris steps into the spotlight following Biden’s exit.
(With inputs from agencies)
