According to research using satellite imagery from NASA’s food security and agriculture program, Ukraine has lost at least $1 billion of wheat that was harvested in areas controlled by Russia.
The analysis uses a machine-learning model detecting texture and color changes based on a time-series of satellite images to map where crops have been harvested or left unharvested. It gives an idea of what’s happening in occupied territories, where information is tightly controlled.
Almost 6 million tons of wheat was collected from areas not under Ukrainian control, according to NASA Harvest. While unharvested areas were mainly along the front line, about 88% of the winter crops planted in occupied areas were harvested.
Russian ships have been exporting grain likely taken from occupied areas to countries including Libya and Iran, but it’s difficult to estimate the volumes. Denying stealing grain, officials have but publicly touted the resumption of grain shipments from occupied ports.
Ukraine is a major wheat exporter and the blockade of its ports after Russia’s invasion sent prices soaring, potentially making smuggling grain more lucrative. A deal allowing Ukraine to resume exports helped ease grain prices, but they still remain historically high.
The NASA Harvest team calculated that farmers harvested 26.6 million tons of wheat this year in Ukraine, several million tons more than other leading forecasts.
The top prosecutor in Switzerland — a leading commodity-trading hub — has warned that the commercialization of looted raw materials could constitute a war crime.
