The New York Times’s election prognosticator, known as the “Needle,” swung widely on election night, adjusting its projections in real-time based on incoming data. By 10:30 p.m. ET on Tuesday (9 a.m. Wednesday in India), it showed an 84% chance of a Donald Trump victory, with a projected 295 electoral college votes.
As new data poured in, the “Needle” adapted continuously to reflect projections it deemed most likely at any given moment. Just before 10 p.m., it estimated Trump at around 290 electoral votes, dipped to 285, and then rose again to 295 by 10:30 p.m.
Unlike the Associated Press and networks like NBC and Fox News, which make shorter-term projections, the “Needle” combines live polling data with demographic and historical trends to provide a broader forecast.
At 10 p.m., media outlets had called 198 electoral votes for Trump, while Vice President Kamala Harris had 112.
The New York Times faced technical challenges that night, as its union of technology workers was on strike over pay and working conditions. Acknowledging the difficulties, the newspaper noted, “Publishing the ‘Needle’ live on election night relies on computer systems maintained by engineers across the company, including some who are currently on strike.”
It added that the display of its election forecast would depend on the stability of these systems and data feeds, only publishing the live version if the systems were deemed reliable.
On the eve of the election, the Times’s final poll had given Harris a 3% lead over Trump, while RealClear Polling’s aggregation showed Trump ahead by 0.6%, indicating a virtual tie.
