IIT scientist, Manindra Agarwal involved in the mathematical projection of trajectory of COVID-19, said that with the new variant of SARS-CoV2 – Omicron, the third wave of coronavirus could hit the peak by February with cases likely to be reaching up to 1-1.5 lakh a day in the country. However it will be milder than the second wave.
“With the new variant, our current forecast is that the country could see the third wave by February but it will be milder than the second wave. So far we have seen that the severity of Omicron is not like the one seen in the Delta variant although the new variant has shown high transmissibility,” Agarwal said.
A close observation is being kept on cases in South Africa where many cases of this variant have been recorded. Agarwal further added that as of now South Africa has not seen a rise in hospitalisation. And hence a fresh set of data on the virus and hospitalisations would only help in getting a more solid picture.
He said a mild lockdown (night curfew, restrictions on crowding), like observed during the spread of delta can bring down beta substantially. That will significantly reduce the peak value, he added.
The Department of Science and Technology (DST) backed Sutra-model had earlier said the third wave of coronavirus could hit the country by October if a new variant, more virulent and transmissible than the Delta, emerges. Till November end, there was no new variant until on November 26, the World Health Organisation (WHO) named the Covid-19 virus variant detected in South Africa and some other countries as Omicron.
The WHO has also classified the Omicron variant as a ‘Variant of Concern’. Experts have expressed possibilities that owing to the genetic modification in the virus, it may possess some specific characteristics.
India has so far reported 21 cases of the Omicron variant, including 17 on Sunday- nine persons from Rajasthan capital Jaipur, seven in Maharashtra’s Pune district and a fully vaccinated man who arrived in Delhi from Tanzania.
