- Vladimir Putin has fully aligned himself with his top military brass, despite their failure to stop a Wagner coup to topple them, according to the Institute for the Study of War.
- Mr. Shoigu and General Gerasimov have “decisively won” Mr. Putin’s favour.
- There is a degree of regularity now to the drone attacks against Moscow which are pretty much a nightly occurrence.
- Most are downed by Russian air defence, and some cause damage. No one in Moscow or the Moscow region has been killed but the vulnerability of the Russian capital has been laid bare.
Vladimir Putin has fully aligned himself with his top military brass, despite their failure to stop a Wagner coup to topple them, according to the Institute for the Study of War.
Wagner boss Yevgeny Prigozhin led a mercenary march on Moscow in June in an attempt to rid the Russian defence ministry of its top two leaders: defence minister Sergei Shoigu and chief of the general staff Valery Gerasimov. Despite early success it capitulated, but this was down to a deal brokered by Alexander Lukashenko, the Belarusian president, with Mr. Putin, rather than being stamped out by the military.
Now the Institute for the Study of War has said: “Putin has fully aligned himself with Shoigu and Gerasimov despite their military failure and inability to stop the rebellion.” He recently met with General Gerasimov in Rostov-on-Don, one city occupied by Wagner, for the first time since the rebellion, the US-based thinktank said.
The Russian general staff has been “purged” of all proteges of the ousted general Sergey Surovikin, himself believed to be an ally of Prigozhin. It appears Mr. Shoigu and General Gerasimov have “decisively won” Mr. Putin’s favour.
There is a degree of regularity now to the drone attacks against Moscow which are pretty much a nightly occurrence. Flight disruptions after temporary shut-downs at the city’s three main airports are increasingly the norm, especially at Vnukovo on the southwestern flank – so along the line of anything flying in from the Ukrainian border. Most are downed by Russian air defence, and some cause damage. No one in Moscow or the Moscow region has been killed but the vulnerability of the Russian capital has been laid bare. Moscow’s air defences were designed to shield the capital from intercontinental ballistic missiles, not pesky UAVs.
Ukraine has given up its initial coyness with regard to responsibility. The spokesperson for Ukraine’s main intelligence directorate, the GUR, on Monday said “GUR is working”. Daily life in Moscow continues with little regard for the increased threat. There is a degree of resignation that this was bound to happen at some point, a collective shrug. No doubt the powers that be are. Drone strikes by now are causing considerable damage to Russian military targets, especially in Crimea.
On Saturday, a strike on an airbase in Novgorod oblast by what Russia’s Ministry of Defence says was a copter-style UAV took out a Russian Tu-22M3 medium bomber.
The UK Ministry of Defence writes in today’s morning update that this adds to the likelihood that some of these drones are being launched from Russian territory, given the shorter range of copter UAVs.
Soon, though, the Russian public will be shielded even from knowing about these strikes. The Federation Council or Upper House is pushing through legislation which will ban the publication of videos or photos depicting drone attacks or other shelling damage on Russian territory, supposedly because it will give away military secrets. It will also mean people far away from the affected regions will have little idea of the extent to which this war is coming home to roost. Anything to keep murmurings of disquiet at the inevitable consequences of a long-drawn-out war at bay.
(With inputs from agencies)
