The number of Lok Sabha seats “vulnerable” for BJP has risen from 144 (in the middle of 2022) to 160 now – based on the party’s internal assessment. Here are the reasons as the party is likely to meet over the issue tomorrow.
There is a growing concern and discomfort running deep in the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) camp, even though it is putting up a calm exterior. And this has reasons that are obvious, but remain a subject of closely guarded meetings.
One such meeting was held in Patna on December 21 and another is scheduled for December 28 in Hyderabad. The focus of deliberations: the increase in BJP’s “vulnerable” Lok Sabha seats, from 144 (in the middle of 2022) to 160 now – based on the party’s internal assessment, thanks to the fast-changing political equations in the run-up to the 2024 general elections. Some media reports put the “vulnerable seats” count at 204, which seems to be a more realistic one.
Against such a backdrop, winning a clear mandate in the upcoming Lok Sabha polls will be a challenge for the NDA. As the BJP seems to be facing challenges on 204 seats out of the 543, securing 272 seats out of the rest 339 would not be a cakewalk.
The biggest grey areas are Bihar and Maharashtra. Both pose a nagging headache for the BJP and can upend all formulas and equations.
BIHAR
In Bihar, CM Nitish Kumar’s JD (U) parted ways with the saffron party in August this year and formed Mahagathbandhan (grand alliance) with RJD, Congress and the Left parties. He is planning to pass on the baton to RJD chief Tejashwi Yadav, and there’s apparently a bigger plan in the works.
In the 2019 Lok Sabha elections, the BJP, JD (U) and Lok Janshakti Party (LJP) teamed up as the NDA in the state and won 39 out of 40 seats. One seat went to the Congress. If we look at the break-up of seats, out of the 39, 17 went to the BJP, 16 to JD (U) and 16 to LJP. Even if BJP retains 17 of the seats it won, which is quite unlikely, on 22 (39-17), it is on shaky ground. Seats like Vaishali, Valmiki Nagar, Nawada, Kishanganj, Katihar, Supaul, Munger, Purnea, Gaya and Jhanjharpur look vulnerable for the BJP.
MAHARASHTRA
The split in Shiv Sena doesn’t augur well for the BJP in the long run. However, the BJP and Eknath Shinde faction of Sena were able to show Uddahav Thackeray the door, it will have long-term implications. Although Shinde is basking in new-found glory, the Uddahav-led Sena faction is waiting for the right time to hit back.
In 2019, of 48 Lok Sabha seats, 23 were wrested by the BJP, 18 by its unsplit Shiv Sena alliance partner. However, after the Sena split, it’s certain that the BJP won’t be able to replicate its 2019 show in 2024. On some seats, the Uddhav Thackeray-led Sena faction may allow Congress-NCP – which of late has developed differences — beat BJP or Shinde candidates on key seats, including Ratnagiri, Shirdi and Maval. The internal assessment of BJP puts the number of “vulnerable seats” in the state at 11.
UTTAR PRADESH
Uttar Pradesh BJP chief Bhupendra Singh Chaudhary may have sounded upbeat when he said his party aimed to win all 80 Lok Sabha seats in the state in 2024, the reality is his comment reeks of over-confidence. It’s true that in 2019, the BJP posted a brilliant show when it won 62 out of the 80 seats (and its ally Apna Dal two) – despite SP, BSP and RLD joining hands – the fact is that the NDA government’s seats had gone down by 10 (it won 72 seats in 2014). Although there are no signs of the opposition striking a coalition again, the BJP has to be wary about the issues it raises. Its election manifesto can’t go on harping on Hindutva, because as regards development the biggest state of India is still a laggard.
In West Bengal, Chief Minister Mamata Banerjee poses a big challenge to the BJP. Her Trinamool Congress (TMC) won 22 seats, while BJP gained massively by winning 18 out of the 42 parliamentary seats in the state. There are 24 Lok Sabha seats in West Bengal that are vulnerable for BJP, according to the party’s internal assessment.
A lot of water has gone down the drain since 2019. And the TMC-BJP stand-off has mounted. Even though BJP is well-placed here, the TMC can spring a surprise by joining hands with other parties.
In Odisha, there are 21 Lok Sabha seats. The Biju Janata Dal (BJP) holds sway over the masses. In 2019, the BJD won 12 seats, BJP 8 and Congress 1. In Chhattisgarh, the BJP won 9 out of the 11 seats in the last general elections. In Madhya Pradesh, the party won all, except one, seat.
The BJP secured a sweeping mandate in Gujarat Assembly elections this year and scored a second consecutive victory in UP. It returned to power in Manipur and also retained Goa and Uttarakhand.
At the Patna meeting, national office bearers of the BJP discussed how to deal with the 100 “vulnerable seats”. In Hyderabad, the other 60 “vulnerable seats” will be taken up. The party has to chalk out a strategy to pay more attention to deal with these seats.
