Bihar Verdict: NDA's Vote Share Points to a Seat Surprise

Post-poll surveys conducted by multiple agencies suggest a clear edge for the National Democratic Alliance (NDA), indicating strong voter support across most regions of the state.

Bihar achieved a historic milestone with a record voter turnout of 66.91 per cent in the recently concluded Assembly elections. This is the highest participation the state has seen since 1951.
The second phase of polling recorded an impressive 68.76 per cent turnout, while the first phase saw 65.09 per cent voter participation. Significantly, women voters outnumbered men at the ballot box, with 71.6 per cent of women casting their votes compared to 62.8 per cent of male voters.

Early post-poll surveys conducted by multiple agencies suggest a clear edge for the National Democratic Alliance (NDA), indicating strong voter support across most regions of the state.

Decoding Bihar’s electoral math

In the 2020 Bihar Assembly elections, the National Democratic Alliance (NDA) narrowly retained power with 125 seats and a 37.26 per cent vote share, edging past the Mahagathbandhan’s 110 seats and 37.23 per cent vote share — a razor-thin margin of just 11,150 votes across the state.

Now, five years later, the political landscape appears poised for a dramatic shift. According to the India TV–Matrize opinion poll, the NDA is projected to win 147 to 167 seats in the 2025 elections, with a significantly higher 48% vote share.

That represents a 10.74 percentage point jump in the NDA’s vote share compared to 2020 — a swing that, if realised, could translate into a much larger seat tally than even the upper limit of the survey’s projection.

Given that the NDA managed to secure 125 seats with just over 37.26 per cent of the votes in 2020, an increase of nearly 11 points could yield a landslide advantage this time. The poll’s projection of 147–167 seats might therefore be a conservative estimate.

What pollster predicted in Bihar

Here are the exit poll projections in Bihar by different pollsters

India TV–Matrize:
NDA: 147–167 seats

Mahagathbandhan: 70–90 seats

Others: 2–8 seats

Chanakya Strategy:
NDA: 130–138 seats

Mahagathbandhan: 100–108 seats

Others: 3–5 seats

Polstrat:
NDA: 133–148 seats

Mahagathbandhan: 87–102 seats

Others: 3–5 seats

Poll Diary:
NDA: 184–209 seats