After a good performance in state polls, the SP cannot afford any slippages, as loss or even a very tight result could send wrong signal before the 2024 general elections.
A prestige battle is on the cards for the Samajwadi Party (SP) in Uttar Pradesh (UP) as two seats represented by party supremo Akhilesh Yadav (Azamgarh) and its minority face Azam Khan (Rampur) are set to go for by-polls on June 23. The two leaders vacated these seats after being elected to the UP Vidhan Sabha earlier this year.
After a good performance in state elections, the SP cannot afford any slippage, as a loss or even a very tight result could send a wrong signal before the 2024 general elections.
After delimitation, out of three elections, in 2009, 2014 and 2019, the SP has won both the seats twice while the BJP has won only once. In fact, in 2009, the BJP won Azamgarh after it fielded an ex-SP MP, Ramakant Yadav.
RAMPUR
In Rampur, while the BJP has fielded former SP and BSP man Ghanshyam Lodhi (OBC), the SP gave a ticket to Azam’s loyalist Asim Raza. BSP has not fielded any candidates.
In 2019, SP won the seat by a margin of 1.1 lakh votes, and recorded 52.7 per cent vote share while the BJP recorded 42.3 per cent. As SP and BSP had contested together as Mahagathbandhan, the transfer of votes of Mayawati’s party helped SP clinch the seat.
In 2022, across the five assembly segments of Suar, Chamraua, Bilaspur, Rampur and Milak, SP won three and BJP two seats as communal polarisation played a key role. The impact of the Prophet remark row is likely to be felt in this election and we could witness polarisation at its peak.
Azamgarh has a good Muslim-Yadav population, considered to be an anchor voting segment of SP. Muslims account for 15.58 per cent, Yadavs 15-20 per cent, Dalits 25.73 per cent in the district. OBCs and MBCs are also in good numbers here.
SP swept all the 10 assembly seats falling in the district in the 2022 state elections riding on consolidation of MY votes. Its alliance with caste-based parties like SBSP, Mahan Dal and Apna Dal (K) helped it gain the OBC / MBC votes as well.
Five of these 10 seats – Sagri, Gopalpur, Mubarakpur, Azamgarh and Mehnagar – come from the ambit of Azamgarh Lok Sabha seat.
In 2019, SP won the seat by a margin of 2.6 lakh votes, with SP recording 60.4 per cent vote share and BJP 35.1 per cent. SP and BSP separately got 3.4 lakh and 2.6 lakh votes in 2014, and this was seamlessly transferred / aggregated in favour of the Mahagathbandhan candidate Akhilesh, who bagged 6.21 lakh votes in 2019.
However, an analysis of the numbers shows that BSP managed to retain its votes in the assembly polls in 2022. In Azamgarh, BSP performed very well compared to the rest of the state owing to its high SC population.
