From Border Fire to Market Burn
What began as a security flare-up on the Pakistan–Afghanistan frontier has now boiled over into kitchen chaos across Pakistan. Following intense clashes earlier this month, Islamabad shut down the crucial Torkham and Chaman border crossings — arteries that channel billions in bilateral trade. The closures, aimed at curbing militant movement, have instead triggered an economic domino effect. In just weeks, tomato prices have skyrocketed by over 400%, touching Rs600–700 per kilo in major cities. For millions already battling record inflation, the humble tomato has turned into a symbol of daily hardship.
The Conflict That Spilled into Markets
The recent skirmishes — the worst since the Taliban took control of Kabul in 2021 — saw deadly exchanges of fire and airstrikes that killed dozens on both sides. Pakistan accused Afghan soil of harbouring militants, while Afghanistan condemned what it termed cross-border aggression. Despite a ceasefire mediated by Qatar and Turkey, both key crossings remain largely sealed.
This blockade has effectively frozen $2.3 billion in annual trade, stranding nearly 5,000 trucks packed with perishable goods — including tomatoes, apples, and grapes. Before the closures, Pakistan relied heavily on Afghan imports to bridge domestic supply gaps, especially for winter vegetables. Now, with those lifelines cut, supply chains have collapsed — and market stalls stand half empty.
Supply Choked, Prices on Fire
The numbers tell the story. Tomatoes that cost Rs120 per kilogram in late September now fetch up to Rs600–700, a fivefold increase. Apples too have doubled, while other fruits and vegetables are seeing ripple effects.
Afghanistan’s proximity and affordability made it Pakistan’s go-to source for perishables. But with containers stuck at the border and produce spoiling in transit, retailers are scrambling. Some are importing limited quantities from Iran and Sindh, but these alternatives come with steep freight costs and logistical hurdles.
A fruit vendor in Islamabad’s G-9 market lamented, “We used to sell tomatoes for Rs100. Now, even at Rs400, customers walk away. They’re essential to every meal, but no one can afford them anymore.”
Economic Fallout: When Kitchens Reflect Crisis
The price surge lands at a time when Pakistan is already grappling with inflation above 25%, a weakened rupee, and slowing growth. Economists warn that the continued closure could push inflation up another 3–4%, further squeezing urban consumers.
For lower-income families, who spend nearly half their earnings on food, this is devastating. Tomatoes are more than garnish — they’re foundational to daily cooking. Rising prices mean smaller portions, altered diets, and growing frustration.
Beyond the dinner table, this episode underscores how interdependent the Pakistani and Afghan economies remain. Afghanistan depends on Pakistan for fuel and medicines, while Pakistan relies on Afghan fruits and vegetables. When politics interrupts trade, both nations lose. As one Afghan trader told Reuters, “The people are starving while politicians argue. Winter is coming, and markets are empty.”
Partial Relief, Lingering Uncertainty
Officials in Islamabad have allowed partial reopening of the Chaman crossing, clearing about 300 stranded trucks under stricter customs protocols. However, full resumption remains weeks away due to ongoing security concerns. The Pak-Afghan Chamber of Commerce estimates over $20 million in trade losses so far, warning that rotting cargo could wipe out small traders completely if talks in Istanbul fail to reach an agreement.
The government has announced emergency imports from Iran and China to stabilize prices, but analysts caution that these are temporary fixes, not structural solutions. Pakistan’s deep reliance on Afghan imports — and its lack of contingency reserves — has made its food system perilously fragile.
When Borders Close, Kitchens Suffer
The tomato @ Rs600 crisis is more than an inflation headline — it’s a wake-up call for Pakistan’s policymakers. Food security can no longer be treated as a by-product of diplomacy. Long-term planning must prioritize supply diversification, local production incentives, and trade resilience even in times of conflict.
As one Karachi-based economist summed it up: “When borders close, kitchens go empty — and that’s as political as it gets.” Until trust and trade are restored, Pakistan’s markets will keep feeling the heat — and so will its people.
(With agency inputs)
