A Historic Moment Meets Political Turmoil

Sanae Takaichi’s ascent as Japan’s first potential female prime minister was meant to mark a turning point in the nation’s political history. A veteran conservative and long-time advocate of late Prime Minister Shinzo Abe’s economic and defense policies, Takaichi had just been elected leader of the ruling Liberal Democratic Party (LDP)—a role that traditionally paves the way to the premiership. However, the excitement surrounding her historic bid quickly turned into uncertainty after a dramatic twist: the LDP’s junior coalition partner, Komeito, abruptly announced its withdrawal from the alliance, throwing Japan’s political stability and Takaichi’s prospects into doubt.

A Coalition Collapse That Shook Tokyo

The 26-year-old partnership between the LDP and Komeito—one of the longest in modern Japanese politics—collapsed after a contentious meeting between Takaichi and Komeito leader Tetsuo Saito. Saito cited the LDP’s failure to adequately address a political funding scandal that has plagued the ruling party for two years as the reason for the split.

“The partnership has run its course,” Saito declared, confirming that Komeito would not support Takaichi in the parliamentary vote scheduled for later this month. The LDP currently holds 196 seats, 37 short of a majority in the lower house, and Komeito’s 32 seats were crucial to forming a stable government.

Takaichi described the decision as “deeply regrettable” but vowed to “do everything possible to win parliamentary backing.” Her task now is formidable—she must secure new alliances or risk becoming Japan’s shortest-serving leader.

Markets React and Business Leaders Worry

News of the coalition collapse reverberated beyond Tokyo’s political corridors. The yen briefly strengthened by 0.5%, recovering from an eight-month low earlier in the week, as traders anticipated a slowdown in the government’s big-spending agenda. Keidanren, Japan’s largest business lobby, expressed alarm over the growing instability.

“With critical policy challenges piling up and global diplomacy at stake, political stability is indispensable,” said Keidanren head Yoshinobu Tsutsui, reflecting widespread unease among business circles.

The uncertainty comes as Japan prepares for several key diplomatic engagements, including regional summits in Malaysia and South Korea and a visit by U.S. President Donald Trump later this month—a delicate moment for Japan to project steadiness on the world stage.

Opposition Gathers Strength

With Komeito’s exit, opposition parties have sensed an opening. The Constitutional Democratic Party (CDP) has hinted at backing Yuichiro Tamaki, the populist leader of the Democratic Party for the People (DPP), as a consensus challenger to Takaichi. Tamaki declared on social media that he was “ready to serve as Prime Minister” and expressed gratitude for the CDP’s support.

If the CDP and DPP unite, they will command 175 seats, enough to force a second-round vote in parliament. Political analysts warn that even if Takaichi prevails, her government may be “weak and short-lived”, burdened by internal divisions and external pressures.

Komeito’s New Direction

Komeito’s leadership has framed its departure as the beginning of a new political phase. Secretary General Makoto Nishida announced that Japan had entered an “era of the multi-party system,” promising that Komeito would become a centrist force for reform. The party, known for its moderate stance and ties to a Buddhist organization, has also criticized Takaichi’s hardline rhetoric on immigration and her visits to the Yasukuni Shrine, which often stir tensions with China and South Korea.

A Test of Leadership and Legacy

Sanae Takaichi’s dream of becoming Japan’s first female prime minister—once within reach—now hangs in the balance. Her leadership faces its first major test before even beginning. Whether she can rebuild alliances and steady the ruling bloc will determine not only her political future but also Japan’s path in an increasingly volatile regional landscape.

If she succeeds, Takaichi could reshape Japan’s political order and glass ceiling in one stroke. But if she fails, this episode may be remembered as a cautionary tale of ambition colliding with fragile coalition politics.

(With agency inputs