In the previous Assembly polls in 2020, the BJP emerged as the second-largest party in the state, securing 74 seats in the 243-member House. Later, it became the single-largest party after three Vikassheel Insaan Party (VIP) legislators joined the BJP in March 2022, taking its tally to 77. At present, the BJP has 78 MLAs in the Bihar Assembly, while the Nitish Kumar-led JD-U has 43 seats.

Despite this, the BJP seems to be dependent on Nitish as the NDA's CM. The reason for this is not that the saffron party does not have a face to project as chief ministerial candidate, but because of Nitish's hold over its core voter base, which largely remains intact.

The caste arithmetic in Bihar

In Bihar, Extremely Backward Classes (EBCs) make up to 36 per cent of the total population. The state also has 19.65 per cent Dalits and 27.12 per cent Other Backward Classes (OBCs), including the Yadavs. While Yadavs have traditionally supported the Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD), non-Yadav OBCs have backed Nitish. The Kurmis, the caste to which Nitish belongs, account for 2.87 per cent of the state. 

Meanwhile, the upper castes account for 15.52 per cent of the total Bihar population. The state also has 17.7 per cent Muslims, who have generally been supporters of the RJD. 

Even though JD-U's vote share during the 2020 Bihar elections reduced to 15.39 per cent, with the party losing deposits in five constituencies, political experts feel that Nitish still holds a command over non-Yadav OBCs, EBCs, Dalits, and women. Many of these castes have silently backed Nitish and remain loyal to him, which remains a reason why the JD-U is a key for the NDA to retain power in the state."So non-vocal supporters, be it EBCs, be it women, be it Dalits, Nitish has a good hold over them. And I think it is very much a reason for the BJP to continue with Nitish as the face of elections, at least. Maybe you would never know what will happen after elections, but at least he is the face of the election there, and no leader will like it or dislike it," he said.

Nitish Kumar provides stability 

Since 2005, the politics in Bihar has revolved around Nitish. Except for a brief period in 2014, Nitish has remained the chief minister of Bihar. Though his habit of frequently switching sides has labelled him as an opportunist, Nitish remains a figure who has provided stability to Bihar, and no leader matches his level of credibility.

Nitish's credibility "has been dented over the last few years but still is far ahead of his competitors. He is well-known in every panchayat, every block, every village, which is not the case with BJP leaders, if I can say. So of course, it is a natural choice for NDA as an NDA candidate," feels Pandit.

Pandit told India TV Digital that the coalition between the BJP and the JD-U is a 'natural alliance', and the vote bases of the two parties are in 'natural alignment', which puts the saffron party 'at ease' in portraying Nitish as the NDA's CM face.

BJP's leadership vacuum conundrum in Bihar

Since 2005, the BJP has not been able to produce a leader who could lead the party during an election in Bihar. In fact, Bihar remains the only state in the Hindi heartland where the BJP never had a chief minister of its own. The tallest leader in the BJP in Bihar was probably Sushil Kumar Modi, who unfortunately passed away on May 13 in 2024.  

Because of a leadership vacuum, the BJP remains dependent on Nitish as NDA's CM face. At present, Pandit says the BJP does not have a leader who can match Nitish's level of charisma, but the saffron party can develop a leader after the NDA returns to power in Bihar.

"If you see, if Nitish on his own maintains a vote base of around, let us say, 15 per cent, 16 per cent vote base, a core vote base, the BJP to portray its CM face has to have a figure which has that level of charisma that can pull more than 16 per cent of the vote base on his or her own," he told India TV Digital.

"As of now, they do not have such a leader who can pull that much of a vote base on their own," he concluded.

What does the BJP feel about Nitish?

India TV Digital spoke to Devesh Kant Singh, Bihar BJP MLA from the Goriakothi Assembly constituency, about this. When asked about the party's dependency on Nitish, Singh said it was former Prime Minister Atal Bihari Vajpayee who made the JD-U leader the face of NDA in Bihar. He said even Prime Minister Narendra Modi has confirmed that the NDA would contest the 2025 Bihar polls under Nitish's leadership.

When asked if there is a possibility of a leadership change once the NDA returns to power in Bihar, Singh reminded about the 2020 election results when, despite the BJP having more MLAs, Nitish was made the chief minister, adding that the saffron party will once again fulfil its promise.

"A sammelan of the NDA is being held at every Assembly constituency. On the banner of that sammelan, it is written, 'Do Hazar Pachees, Fir Se Nitish'. All five NDA members – BJP, JD-U, LJP, Upendra Kushwaha and Jitan Ram Manjhi... So, there is no doubt about Nitish Kumar being the face of the NDA," Singh told India TV Digital.

NDA's performance over the years in Bihar elections

In the 2005 Assembly elections held in Bihar in October-November, the JD-U and the BJP won 88 (20.46 per cent vote share) and 55 (15.65 per cent vote share) seats, respectively. Meanwhile, the RJD's tally reduced to 54, with 23.45 per cent vote share. 

In the 2010 Assembly polls, the NDA performance improved significantly, with the JD-U and the BJP winning 115 (22.58 per cent vote share) and 91 (16.49 per cent vote share) seats, respectively. The RJD won just 22 seats, with 18.84 per cent of the vote share.

During the 2015 Bihar elections, the JD-U joined the grand alliance with the RJD after walking out of the NDA in 2014. The grand alliance, which also included Congress and Left parties, swept the elections, with the RJD and the JD-U winning 80 (18.4 per cent vote share) and 71 (16.8 per cent vote share) seats, respectively. The BJP, meanwhile, won just 53 seats, with a vote share of 24.4 per cent.

However, Nitish left the grand alliance and contested the 2020 Bihar elections with the NDA. The BJP-backed alliance won the polls, but the JD-U's performance dropped significantly, as it won just 43 seats, with its vote share dropping to 15.39 per cent. The BJP bagged 74 seats with a vote share of 19.46 per cent, emerging as the second-largest party in the state. With 75 seats and 23.11 per cent vote share, the RJD emerged as the single-largest party. However, the RJD had failed to form the government in the state in 2020, owing to the poor performance of its allies – Congress and Left parties.