A new strategic assessment warns that China’s rapid expansion of airpower has fundamentally altered the military balance in the Indo-Pacific, undermining long-standing assumptions of U.S. and allied air superiority. The findings come from The Evolution of Russian and Chinese Air Power Threats by Justin Bronk, which examines how Russian and Chinese capabilities have evolved since 2020.

The report finds that while Russia remains a serious and increasingly capable airpower threat in Europe—shaped by combat experience in Ukraine—China represents a far more structural and systemic challenge. Beijing’s integrated growth across air, missile, sensor, and networked warfare has already constrained U.S. freedom of action inside and around the First Island Chain, including Taiwan, Japan, and adjacent waters.

Since 2020, the People’s Liberation Army Air Force and the People’s Liberation Army Navy Air Force have expanded advanced fourth- and fifth-generation fighter fleets at remarkable speed. By late 2025, China is assessed to field 320–350 J-20 stealth fighters, with production nearing 120 aircraft per year, alongside roughly 450 J-16 multirole fighters. These aircraft are armed with long-range air-to-air missiles that significantly outrange Western equivalents.

Crucially, this fighter growth is embedded within a dense system of enablers: around 50 KJ-500 AEW&C aircraft, advanced electronic warfare platforms, and an expanding satellite-based ISR network, all integrated with ground-based and maritime IADS. Together, they form long-range “kill chains” capable of threatening tankers, carrier groups, and forward bases at distances exceeding 1,000 km.

The report concludes that Western aircraft operating inside the First Island Chain would face contested airspace and stretched support. Bronk urges planners to abandon assumptions of guaranteed air superiority and prepare instead for limited, temporary windows of control—marking a fundamental shift in modern air warfare.