It was believed that Vijay’s Tamilaga Vettri Kazhagam (TVK) had finally reached the crucial 118-mark needed to stake claim to power in Tamil Nadu, backed by support from the Congress, Left parties and the anticipated endorsement of the VCK. For much of the day, political circles buzzed with speculation that Vijay was on the verge of being invited to form the government. But late into the night, the political arithmetic unravelled dramatically after questions emerged over the authenticity of support from the lone AMMK MLA, throwing the entire process into uncertainty once again.

The Numbers Game Behind Vijay’s Claim

The confusion stems from the delicate mathematics of the 234-member Tamil Nadu Assembly. TVK secured 108 seats in the election, but because Vijay contested and won from two constituencies, one seat is expected to be vacated, effectively reducing the party’s tally to 107.

To command a majority, Vijay requires support from at least 118 MLAs. According to Lok Bhavan sources, the documents submitted by TVK reportedly included support letters from 117 MLAs:

·       107 from TVK

·       5 from Congress

·       4 from Left parties

·       1 from the AMMK’s lone MLA, S Kamaraj

That arithmetic left Vijay technically one short of the majority mark, though earlier reports suggested that possible backing from the VCK could bridge the gap. The Governor had already made it clear that verbal assurances would not suffice and that written support from 118 MLAs was mandatory before any invitation to form the government could be considered.

The AMMK Controversy Changes Everything

What initially appeared to be a manageable shortfall escalated into a full-blown political controversy when TTV Dhinakaran intervened. Dhinakaran claimed that the support letter submitted in the name of AMMK MLA S Kamaraj was forged.

According to Dhinakaran, both he and Kamaraj had already pledged support to the AIADMK and formally communicated the same to the Governor. He later escalated the matter by filing a police complaint accusing TVK of using a fabricated document to falsely project AMMK support.

TVK responded swiftly, releasing a video purportedly showing Kamaraj drafting a support letter for Vijay. The dispute transformed a straightforward majority question into a politically explosive battle over authenticity, coercion and legitimacy.

As the controversy deepened, Lok Bhavan sources indicated that Vijay’s uncontested support may effectively stand at only 116 MLAs, placing him two short of the required number. This uncertainty reportedly prompted Raj Bhavan to withhold any immediate formal invitation for swearing-in despite earlier expectations of an 11 am ceremony.

A Deeper Political and Constitutional Test

The unfolding crisis highlights how fragile coalition politics can become when every single MLA matters. The controversy is no longer merely about arithmetic; it is about constitutional legitimacy and the Governor’s responsibility in a deeply contested mandate.

The Governor now faces a difficult choice — whether to invite Vijay to take oath and prove his majority through a floor test, or delay the process until disputes surrounding the AMMK letter are conclusively resolved. While Supreme Court precedents generally favour early floor tests in such situations, allegations of forgery complicate the matter and provide grounds for caution.

Equally significant is the outsized influence of smaller parties. In a tightly balanced Assembly, even a single MLA from a micro-party like the AMMK can dramatically alter the political narrative and bargaining power.

A Majority on Paper, but Not Yet in Certainty

The “116 versus 117 versus 118” battle underscores how precarious Vijay’s path to power remains despite TVK emerging as the dominant political force. What seemed like a historic breakthrough has now entered another phase of uncertainty marked by legal questions, procedural caution and intense political manoeuvring. Unless TVK quickly secures uncontested written backing from additional allies, the current impasse could delay Vijay’s swearing-in further and reopen the door for rival camps to challenge his claim to government formation.

(With agency inputs)