India and Bangladesh have reopened negotiations on the Ganga Water Sharing Treaty at a moment of consequence, as the landmark agreement signed in 1996 approaches its December 2026 expiry. Talks formally commenced on January 1, 2026, with joint hydrological measurements on the Ganga–Padma system at Farakka—an early technical step that signals intent, but also underscores the political and ecological sensitivities surrounding the river that sustains millions on both sides of the border.

Why the Treaty Matters

The Ganga is not merely a transboundary river; it is an economic artery, ecological system, and diplomatic barometer for India–Bangladesh ties. The original treaty brought predictability to dry-season water sharing after decades of uncertainty and dispute. As pressures from climate change, population growth, and upstream water use intensify, the renewal process is shaping up to be a test of whether the two neighbours can adapt an old framework to new realities.

Historical Context: From Dispute to Managed Sharing

The roots of the water-sharing dispute go back to the aftermath of the 1947 Partition. India’s construction of the Farakka Barrage in the mid-1970s, intended to divert water to prevent silting at Kolkata Port, triggered strong objections from downstream Bangladesh, which experienced acute dry-season shortages. Several short-term and politically fragile arrangements followed between 1975 and 1982, but none endured.

Stability came only with the 1996 Ganga Water Sharing Treaty, concluded under the leadership of India’s Prime Minister H.D. Deve Gowda and Bangladesh’s Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina. The agreement laid down a formula for sharing lean-season flows from January to May, using ten-day allocation schedules linked to water availability at Farakka. India committed to minimum releases under specified conditions, while a Joint Committee was tasked with monitoring implementation.

Current Negotiations: Positions and Pressures

As renewal talks unfold, the two sides are approaching the table with differing priorities. Bangladesh is pushing for a full 30-year extension, backed by tighter compliance mechanisms, greater transparency in data sharing, and consideration of upstream infrastructure and related rivers such as the Teesta. India, by contrast, is signalling preference for a shorter renewal period—possibly 10 to 15 years—to retain flexibility as domestic demands for irrigation, hydropower generation, and inland navigation rise.

Political factors further complicate the picture. Bangladesh’s interim administration under Muhammad Yunus, following Sheikh Hasina’s removal in 2024, introduces uncertainty about continuity and negotiating authority. In India, objections from West Bengal Chief Minister Mamata Banerjee highlight the federal dimension, as river waters remain a sensitive state subject. Alongside the Ganga, parallel discussions are addressing flood forecasting and cooperation on other shared rivers, indicating a broader but more complex agenda.

What Outcomes Are Possible?

Several pathways could emerge from the talks.

·       A straightforward extension with modest technical updates would preserve stability but may fall short of addressing long-term stressors such as climate variability.

·       A renegotiated treaty with enhanced data sharing, joint basin-level management, and adaptive flow mechanisms could set a new benchmark for regional water governance.

·       Conversely, failure to reach consensus would allow the treaty to lapse, freeing India from binding obligations but exposing both countries to ecological risks, diplomatic fallout, and renewed mistrust.

For Bangladesh, inadequate dry-season flows exacerbate salinization, fisheries decline, and livelihood losses affecting tens of millions. For India, unmanaged releases heighten flood risks and invite regional criticism, undermining its neighbourhood diplomacy.

Beyond Renewal, Toward Resilience

The Ganga Water Sharing Treaty renewal is about more than extending a deadline—it is about redefining cooperation in an era of scarcity. A forward-looking agreement that balances national interests with shared ecological responsibility could reinforce India–Bangladesh relations and offer a template for resolving other river disputes, including the long-stalled Teesta accord. The coming months will reveal whether political will can match hydrological necessity, and whether the Ganga can remain a source of cooperation rather than contention.

(With agency inputs)